The real estate market has always moved in cycles—ups and downs driven by interest rates, economic shifts, and supply and demand. But some industry experts believe we’re on the verge of something even bigger: a real estate supercycle.

Unlike short-term market fluctuations, a supercycle represents a long-term period of sustained real estate growth. According to Chad Tredway, Head of Real Estate Americas at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, policy changes, continued housing demand, and eventual interest rate declines could fuel a prolonged period of real estate appreciation.

So, what does this mean for Rhode Island homebuyers, sellers, and investors? Let’s break down the key trends shaping the market and why now may be the time to make your move.

What Is a Real Estate Supercycle?

A supercycle refers to a long-term expansion in the housing market, driven by factors that continue to push home values upward despite short-term fluctuations. This differs from traditional market cycles, which see more frequent peaks and valleys.

Key drivers of a real estate supercycle:

• Housing demand continues to outpace supply—especially in desirable markets like Warwick, Cranston, and East Greenwich.

• Even with high interest rates, home prices continue to rise due to supply shortages.

• Institutional investors and homebuyers are still active, indicating long-term confidence in real estate as an appreciating asset.

• Policy changes and economic shifts could further support home price growth over the next decade.

In short, we may be at the start of a prolonged period where housing values continue to appreciate—regardless of short-term rate fluctuations.

Will Interest Rates Really Matter in 2025?

Many prospective buyers have been waiting for interest rates to drop before purchasing a home, but what if that wait ends up costing more?

Here’s the reality:

• Home prices are still increasing, even with rates in the 6-7% range.

• A J.P. Morgan report forecasts a 3% increase in home prices in 2025—which means waiting could mean paying more.

• Demand remains high, and when rates do eventually drop, buyers who wait could face increased competition and rising prices.

What This Means for Buyers in Rhode Island:
If you’re holding off on buying a home because of interest rates, consider this: you can always refinance later, but you can’t go back and buy at today’s prices (as long as today’s payment makes sense for you).

What This Means for Sellers in Rhode Island:
If you’ve been debating whether to sell, now is a good time to enter the market while home prices remain strong and buyers are still active.

Rhode Island’s Housing Market Is Already Positioned for Growth

Rhode Island has long been a competitive housing market, and local market conditions suggest that home values will continue to appreciate in the coming years.

Why Rhode Island Real Estate Could Thrive in a Supercycle:

1. Housing Inventory Remains Low

   • The supply of homes for sale in Warwick, Cranston, and North Kingstown remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

   • New construction has not kept pace with demand, meaning fewer available homes for buyers.

2. Coastal Living & Strong Demand

   • Waterfront properties in Warwick Neck, Narragansett, and Newport remain highly desirable.

   • More out-of-state buyers are moving to Rhode Island, seeking affordable alternatives to Boston and New York City.

3. Home Prices Have Continued to Climb

   • Even with economic uncertainty, Rhode Island home prices have risen year over year.

   • As of early 2025, the median home price in Warwick is $414,500, reflecting a 7.5% annual increase.

Why Waiting Could Be a Costly Mistake

One of the biggest misconceptions in real estate is waiting for the “perfect” time to buy or sell. The reality is that waiting could cost buyers more in the long run.

Consider This Scenario:

A home in Cranston priced at $465,000 today increases by just 3% in 2025. That same home will cost $478,950 next year—meaning buyers who wait will need a larger down payment and a bigger loan.

Even if interest rates drop slightly, increased competition from other buyers could drive up prices even more, negating any potential savings.

What This Means for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors in Rhode Island

For Buyers:

• Don’t wait for interest rates to drop—home prices are expected to keep rising.

• If you can afford to buy now, you can refinance later when rates decline.

• Work with a local expert to find homes before competition heats up.

For Sellers:

• The market still favors sellers due to low inventory and strong demand.

• If you’ve been holding off, now may be a good time to list before buyer competition intensifies.

• Homes that are priced right and well-marketed are still selling quickly.

For Investors:

• The long-term fundamentals point to continued appreciation in Rhode Island real estate.

• Multi-family homes in areas like Providence, Pawtucket, and Cranston remain excellent investment opportunities.

• Rental demand is strong, as Providence was just named the least affordable rental market in the U.S.

Final Thoughts: Should You Buy or Sell in 2025?

If the predictions of a real estate supercycle are correct, waiting could mean missing out on one of the best long-term opportunities in real estate. Rhode Island’s tight inventory, rising prices, and strong demand all suggest that our local market is poised for growth—regardless of short-term rate changes.

At The Slocum Home Team, we’re here to help you navigate this market with confidence. Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, our team of local experts can provide the guidance you need to make the right move.

📞 Call Nick Slocum or one of The Slocum Home Team’s top agents today.