What will mortgage rates look like in 2025? According to 14 major research groups, the average prediction for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.34% by the end of 2025. While economic forecasting is always challenging—especially after the unprecedented impacts of the pandemic and rapid interest rate hikes—these insights offer valuable perspectives on where rates may be headed.

Why Mortgage Rate Forecasts Matter

Mortgage rates play a significant role in affordability for homebuyers. Even slight changes can make a big difference in monthly payments and overall costs. While predicting rates with certainty is impossible, analyzing trends and expert forecasts helps paint a clearer picture of the future market.

Here’s a breakdown of the predictions from 14 leading institutions, ranked from highest to lowest:

Higher-End Predictions

  • Redfin: Predicts rates will average 6.8% each quarter in 2025. A weaker economy or policy changes could push rates lower.

  • Capital Economics: Projects rates at 6.75% in Q4 2025, dropping to 6.0% by Q4 2026.

  • Hunter Housing Economics: Foresees rates averaging 6.6% in 2025, influenced by U.S. federal debt pressures.

  • CoreLogic: Expects rates to average 6.5% in Q4 2025.

Middle-Range Predictions

  • Wells Fargo: Predicts 6.41% in Q4 2025, with a slight decline in 2026.

  • Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): Projects 6.4% by Q4 2025, stabilizing near 6.3% in 2026.

  • Fannie Mae: Foresees a gradual decline from 6.5% in Q1 2025 to 6.3% by year-end.

  • Moody’s: Estimates rates will fall to 6.3% by the end of 2025, revising their earlier, lower forecast due to economic and policy shifts.

Lower-End Predictions

  • Morgan Stanley: Predicts stabilization around 6.25% by mid-2025.

  • Bright MLS: Anticipates 6.25% in Q4 2025.

  • Realtor.com: Projects 6.3% in 2025, dropping to 6.2% by Q4.

  • NAHB (National Association of Home Builders): Expects rates to average 6.12% in 2025, with further declines in 2026.

  • Goldman Sachs: Predicts 6.1% by the end of 2025.

  • NAR (National Association of Realtors): Forecasts a decline from 6.0% in Q1 to 5.8% in Q4 2025, with rates remaining steady into 2026.

What Could Impact Mortgage Rates in 2025?

While forecasts provide a useful starting point, they depend on several factors, including:

  • Economic Policy: Fiscal changes, tax policies, and tariffs could influence inflation and interest rates.

  • Housing Supply: Limited inventory may keep home prices elevated, affecting affordability and demand.

  • Labor Market Trends: A weaker job market could drive rates lower than expected.

As Brad Hunter from Hunter Housing Economics explains:

“Mortgage rates will not fall the way many analysts are predicting because of the pressure that the federal debt in the U.S. will have on long-term mortgage rates.”

Why Local Market Insights Matter

National forecasts are helpful, but mortgage rates and housing market trends can vary significantly by location. A local real estate expert can provide a clearer picture of what these predictions mean for your specific market.

Bottom Line

While no one can predict mortgage rates with complete certainty, understanding expert forecasts can help you plan for the future. If you're thinking about buying or selling a home in Rhode Island, I’m here to provide local insights and help you navigate the market.

Let’s connect to discuss how these mortgage rate trends could impact your real estate goals.